热带中太平洋海温年代际增暖对西太平洋台风的影响

Impacts of the Decadal Warming of the SST over the Central Tropical Pacific on the Western Pacific Typhoons

摘要: 本文利用NOAA重建的海表面温度资料、JTWC的台风数据集，以及NCEP/NCAR发布的再分析资料，探讨了热带中太平洋海温年代际变化对西太平洋台风活动的影响。研究结果表明：1) 热带中太平洋的海温相较于1950~1979年的平均状况，在20世纪80年代中期经历了一次显著的年代际突变，突变后海温增暖；2) 在此突变后，西太平洋的台风及强台风生成频率有所增加，但强度变化并不显著；此外，台风生成区域在地理上呈现出向东向南的扩展趋势，而登陆区域则向西向北移动；3) 热带中太平洋海温的年代际变化通过调控一系列与台风生成和发展密切相关的大气环流、辐射通量等气象要素，对西太平洋台风活动的增强起到了积极的推动作用。这些研究为理解台风活动的动态变化提供了新的视角，并为未来的气候预测和台风预警提供了科学依据。

Abstract: This paper explores the influence of the interdecadal change of SST in the tropical central Pacific on the typhoon activity in the western Pacific Ocean using the reconstructed SST data from NOAA, the typhoon dataset from JTWC, and the reanalysis data released by NCEP/NCAR. The results show that: 1) the SST in the tropical central Pacific experienced a significant interdecadal abrupt change in the mid~1980s compared with the average condition from 1950 to 1979, and the SST warmed up after the abrupt change. 2) After this abrupt change, the frequency of typhoons and strong typhoons generated in the western Pacific Ocean increased, but the change in intensity was not significant; moreover, the typhoon generating region geographically showed an expansion trend from east to south, while the landfalling region moved from west to north. 3) Interdecadal variations of SST in the tropical central Pacific Ocean play a positive role in the enhancement of typhoon activities in the western Pacific Ocean by regulating a series of meteorological elements, such as atmospheric circulation and radiation fluxes, that are closely related to typhoon generation and development. These studies provide new perspectives for understanding the dynamics of typhoon activity and provide a scientific basis for future climate prediction and typhoon warning.