基于AT-LSTM-BP的生态–经济–城镇化耦合探索及预测——以黄河流域省份为例

Coupling Coordination Degree and LSTM-Attention-BP Model-Based Exploration and Prediction for Ecology-Economy-Urbanization Development—A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin, China

摘要: 深入研究生态–经济–城镇化的协调发展状况，以2005~2021年黄河9省数据为例，采用耦合协调度、Dagum基尼系数及障碍因子模型分析了三系统的耦合发展关系、区域差异及来源，并构建AT-LSTM-BP模型预测生态发展情况。结果表明：(1) 黄河流域的耦合协调度总体呈现“中度不协调–勉强协调–中度协调–高度协调”的演化规律。且表现出下游 > 中游 > 上游的空间格局。(2) 区域间差异是黄河流域耦合协调水平差异的主要来源，其中上–下游区域之间差异最大。总体及上游区域内的差异均呈扩大趋势，中、下游区域内差异呈现显著倒“U”型。(3) 黄河流域三系统的耦合协调发展主要受到经济规模、环境治理和环境要素的制约，上–中–下游的各省的主要障碍因子存在一定差异。(4) 组合模型预测结果明显优于单一模型，经济发展、城镇化建设综合指标对生态环境质量指标的驱动作用显著。AT-LSTM-BP模型的预测效果最佳，能为相关研究带来帮助。

Abstract: To deeply study the development status of Ecology-Economy-Urbanization (EEUs) in nine Yellow River provinces, the coupled development relationship, regional differences and sources of EEUs were analyzed by using the coupling coordination degree (CDD), Dagum Gini coefficient and obstacle factor model, and a LSTM-Attention-BP model was constructed to predict ecological development. The results showed that: (1) The CCD in the Yellow River Basin generally shows the evolution of “moderate incoordination-reluctant coordination-moderate coordination-high coordination”. The spatial pattern is downstream > midstream > upstream. (2) Inter-regional differences are the main source of differences in the level of coupling coordination. The overall and upstream differences show an expanding trend, and the differences between the middle and downstream regions show a significant inverted “U” shape. (3) The coupling coordinated development of EEUs is mainly constrained by Economic Scale, Environmental Management and Environmental Element, and there are some differences in the main obstacles between provinces. (4) The prediction result of the combined model is significantly better than that of the single model. The AT-LSTM-BP model has the best prediction effect, which can be helpful for the related research.