西南雨季降水变化与海温的关系

Relationship between Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Sea Surface Temperatures

摘要: 为了研究中国西南雨季降水变化和海温的关系，利用西南地区1960~2022年81站共63年的逐日气象观测降水量资料、同期英国哈德莱中心月平均海表温度(SST)资料(格点分辨率为1˚ × 1˚)、欧洲气象资料中心(ERA-interim)的月平均降水再分析资料(格点分辨率为0.25˚ × 0.25˚)。通过相关分析、经验正交函数分解(EOF)和奇异值分解(SVD)等方法，对西南雨季降水变化与全球SST之间的关系进行了研究分析，结果表明：1) 西南地区63年的雨季降水空间分布不均，呈现东多西少，南多北少的态势，同时，其与前冬、春季澳大利亚东北部太平洋，夏、秋季北印度洋和同期5⁓10月份的北印度洋海温呈现显著负相关关系，即关键区海温异常偏暖(冷)，西南雨季降水偏少(多)。2) EOF分析表明：在第1模态下，前一年冬季和当年春季关键区海域海温的分布形式多呈现出西高东低的形式，包括了东太平洋冷舌和西太平洋暖池形态，并且在千禧年之前大部分都是海温多为偏冷状态；而千禧年之后关键区海温由偏冷转为偏暖状态。而当年夏秋季和雨季同期关键区海域海温呈现出全区一致偏暖状态，并且在90年代之后海温从偏冷转变为偏暖状态，其第2空间模态为印度洋正偶极子分布形式。3) SVD分解表明：关键区海温与川西高原地区雨季降水存在正相关关系，而与川东、黔南和云南呈现出一个显著的负相关性，不同季节的海温关键区影响的降水大值区域可能略有不同，但总体来说，当关键区海温异常偏高(低)，川西高原的雨季降水异常偏多(少)，而其余大部分地区降水异常偏少(多)；其分解结果与相关系数的分析结果基本一致并且近年来西南地区的雨季降水呈现出逐年减少的态势。

Abstract: In order to study the relationship between precipitation change and sea surface temperature in the rainy season in southwest China, the daily meteorological observations of 81 stations in Southwest China from 1960 to 2022 for a total of 63 years were used measured precipitation data, the monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data of the Hadley Center in the United Kingdom (grid resolution of 1˚ × 1˚) and the monthly mean precipitation reanalysis data of the European Meteorological Data Center (ERA-interim) (grid resolution of 0.25˚ × 0.25˚). The relationship between precipitation change in the rainy season in southwest China and global SST was analyzed by correlation analysis, empirical orthogonal function decomposition (EOF) and singular value decomposition (SVD). The results shows: 1) The spatial distribution of rainy season precipitation in southwest China in 63 years was uneven, showing a trend of more precipitation in the east and less in the west, and more in the south and less in the north, and at the same time, it was significantly negatively correlated with the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean in northeast Australia in the early winter and spring, the northern Indian Ocean in summer and autumn, and the northern Indian Ocean in May and October in the same period, that is, the SST in the key areas was abnormally warm (cold), and the precipitation in the southwest rainy season was less (more). 2) EOF analysis shows that in the first mode, the distribution of sea surface temperature in the key areas in the winter and spring of the previous year mostly shows the form of high in the west and low in the east, including the cold tongue of the eastern Pacific and the warm pool of the western Pacific, and most of the SST is in a cold state before the millennium. After the turn of the millennium, the sea surface temperature in key areas changed from cold to warm. However, the SST in the key areas of the key area in the same period of summer, autumn and rainy season showed a uniform warming state in the whole region, and after the 90s, the SST changed from cold to warm, and the second spatial mode was the normal dipole distribution of the Indian Ocean. 3) SVD decomposition showed that the sea surface temperature in the key area and the rainy season in the western Sichuan Plateau. There is a positive correlation with precipitation, and there is a significant negative correlation with eastern Sichuan, southern Guizhou and Yunnan, and the influence of key areas of SST in different seasons is positive. The precipitation area may be slightly different, but in general, when the sea surface temperature in the key area is abnormally high (low), the rainy season precipitation in the western Sichuan Plateau is abnormally biased more (less), while most of the rest of the precipitation is abnormally low (more). The decomposition results are basically consistent with the analysis results of the correlation coefficient and in recent years. The rainy season precipitation in southwest China shows a decreasing trend year by year.