昆明管制区颠簸的特征及预报初探

Preliminary Study on the Characteristics and Forecasting of Turbulence in Kunming Control Zone

摘要: 文章利用2021~2023年昆明管制区收到的话音方式航空器空中报告、欧洲中心ERA5再分析资料及美国大气环境预测中心的GFS资料等分析昆明管制区颠簸的特征并开展颠簸预测研究。结果表明，昆明管制区航路颠簸主要出现在07~23时，14~15时出现最多；大部分颠簸出现的高度在6937~8350之间，导致昆明关键区出现中到强或强颠簸的天气系统主要位于500 hPa高度层附近。颠簸指数的运用要结合天气系统、高低空急流及垂直速度、散度等进行分析；颠簸易发生在上升和下沉气流交汇区及辐合辐散分界处。昆明管制区内颠簸指数预测产品对颠簸预测有一定的指导意义；大风季跟踪El指数≥11或Dutton ≥ 80的大值区能够较好地监视颠簸区域的变化；颠簸指数预测产品对数值预报产品依赖性很强，预测有一定偏差时需结合风场的变化进行分析。

Abstract: The article conducts an analysis on the characteristics of turbulence in the Kunming control area and carries out research on turbulence prediction by utilizing pilot reports received in Kunming Control Zone from 2021 to 2023, ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Center, and GFS data from the US Atmospheric Environment Prediction Center. The results indicate that turbulence on air routes within the Kunming Control Zone mainly occurs from 07:00 to 23:00, with the peak frequency between 14:00 and 15:00. The majority of turbulence events occur at altitudes ranging from 6,937 to 8,350 meters, with weather systems causing moderate to severe or severe turbulence primarily located near the 500 hPa atmospheric pressure level. The application of the turbulence index must incorporate an analysis of weather systems, jet streams at different altitudes, vertical velocities, and divergence, among other factors. Turbulence tends to occur in areas where ascending and descending airflows converge or at the boundaries between converging and diverging flows. The turbulence index prediction products within the Kunming Control Zone provide valuable guidance for turbulence forecasting. During high wind seasons, tracking areas with an El index ≥11 or a Dutton index ≥80 can effectively monitor changes in turbulence regions. The accuracy of turbulence index forecasting products heavily relies on numerical weather prediction products, and any significant deviations in forecasts should be analyzed in conjunction with changes in wind patterns.