阿勒泰市设施农业高影响天气分析及风险评估研究

Analysis and Risk Assessment of High Impact Weather in Facility Agriculture in Altay City

摘要: 文章采用阿勒泰市气象站1961~2020年观测资料，应用数理统计方法，对影响阿勒泰冬季设施农业高影响天气进行分析，结果表明：大雪天气发生概率最高，每年必然发生；大风天气发生概率次之，基本每年都会发生，极寒天气发生概率为74.5%，发生可能性大。大雪日数平均为62.9 d，每10年显著减少5.2 d；大风日数平均为2.1 d，增多趋势不显著；年寒冷日数平均为3.4 d，以每10年减少0.4 d的趋势变化。采用耿贝尔分布函数推算，得到不同重现期的高影响天气日数，均通过显著性检验。

Abstract: Based on the observation data of Altay Meteorological Station from 1961 to 2020, this paper analyzes the high impact weather affecting Altay’s facility agriculture in winter by using the method of mathematical statistics. The results show that the probability of heavy snow is the highest, and it is bound to happen every year. The occurrence probability of windy weather is the second, and it basically happens every year. The occurrence probability of extremely cold weather is 74.5%, which is highly probable. The average number of heavy snow days is 62.9 d, which is significantly reduced by 5.2 d every 10 years. The average number of windy days is 2.1 d, and the increasing trend is not significant. The average number of cold days per year is 3.4 days, with a decreasing trend of 0.4 days per decade. The number of high impact weather days with different recurrence periods was calculated by using the Gumbel distribution function, and all of them passed the significance test.