1960~2022年塔城地区升温过程频数及强度特征分析

Analysis of Frequency and Intensity Characteristics of Warming Process in Tacheng Area from1960 to 2022

摘要: 利用塔城地区7个气象观测站1960~2022年逐日气温资料，以日最高气温及其升温幅度为指标，整理出塔城地区近63 a升温日及升温过程数据库，并依据相关标准将其划分为5个等级，分别分析了其频数和强度的变化特征。结果表明，1) 近63a塔城地区升温日以乌苏最多，和丰最少，1月、12月最多，4月最少，冬季最多，春季最少；年代际分布经历了“升高–降低–降低–升高–降低–降低”的交替演变，其中1960年代为最高值，21世纪初年为最低值；塔城地区及7站升温日频数均呈显著减少趋势。2) 塔城地区升温过程发生频数以托里最多，乌苏最少，5月最多，11月最少，春季最多，冬季最少；年代际分布经历了“降低–升高–升高–降低–降低–降低”的交替演变，其中1980年代为最高值，21世纪初年为最低值；塔城地区最大24 h、48 h、72 h升温幅度大值区主要分布在塔城盆地，塔城地区及7站升温过程频数均呈显著减少趋势。3) 塔城地区I级(弱)升温过程发生频数最多，V级(极强)最少；7站中I级(弱)和IV级(强)升温过程发生频数塔城最多，II级(中等强度)和III级(较强)托里最多，V级(极强)裕民最多；I级(弱)升温过程发生频数7月最多，2月最少，II级(中等强度)5月最多，2月和11月最少，III级(较强)1月最多，6、7、8月未出现，IV级(强)4月最多，1月最少，V级(极强)5月最多，1、2、11、12月均未出现；I级(弱)升温过程发生频数夏季最多，III级(较强)冬季最多，II级(中等强度)、IV级(强)、V级(极强)均以春季最多；I级(弱)升温过程发生频数以20世纪1990年代最多，II级(中等强度)、III级(较强)、IV级(强)均以20世纪1970年代最多，V级(极强)以2000年代最多。

Abstract: Based on daily temperature data from seven meteorological observation stations in the Tacheng area from 1960 to 2022, the database of warming days and warming processes in the past 63 years was sorted out with the daily maximum temperature and its warming range as the index. According to relevant standards, the database was divided into 5 levels, and the variation characteristics of their frequency and intensity were analyzed respectively. The results show that: 1) Over the past 63 years, the Tacheng region has experienced the most warming days in Wusu and the fewest in Hefa. January and December had the highest number of warming days, while April had the least. Winter recorded the most warming days, while spring had the fewest. The decadal distribution exhibited an alternating pattern of “increase-decrease-decrease-increase-decrease-decrease”, with the 1960s representing the highest value and the early 21st century the lowest. Additionally, the frequency of warming days in the Tacheng region and the seven observation stations has shown a significant decreasing trend. 2) In the Tacheng region, the frequency of warming processes is highest in Toli and lowest in Wusu. May sees the most occurrences, while November has the least. Spring experiences the most warming processes, whereas winter has the fewest. The decadal distribution shows an alternating pattern of “decrease-increase-increase-decrease-decrease-decrease”, with the 1980s representing the peak value and the early 21st century the lowest. The maximum warming amplitudes over 24 hours, 48 hours, and 72 hours are mainly concentrated in the Tacheng Basin, and there is a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of warming processes across the Tacheng region and the seven observation stations. 3) In the Tacheng region, the frequency of Level I (weak) warming processes is the highest, while Level V (extreme) processes are the least frequent. Among the seven observation stations, Level I (weak) and Level IV (strong) warming processes occur most frequently in Tacheng, whereas Level II (moderate) and Level III (relatively strong) processes are most common in Toli, and Level V (extreme) processes are most frequent in Yumin. Level I (weak) warming processes occur most frequently in July and least in February. For Level II (moderate), May has the highest frequency, with February and November having the least. Level III (relatively strong) processes are most common in January, while they do not occur in June, July, or August. Level IV (strong) processes are most frequent in April and least in January. Level V (extreme) processes are most common in May, with no occurrences in January, February, November, or December. In terms of seasonal distribution, Level I (weak) warming processes occur most frequently in summer, while Level III (relatively strong) processes are most frequent in winter. Levels II (moderate), IV (strong), and V (extreme) processes are all most common in spring. Regarding decadal distribution, Level I (weak) warming processes peaked in the 1990s, while Level II (moderate), III (relatively strong), and IV (strong) were most frequent in the 1970s. Level V (extreme) processes were most common in the 2000s.