“一带一路”倡议背景下中国运输业的碳排放及驱动因素研究

Research on Carbon Emissions and Driving Factors of China’s Transport Industry in the Context of the Belt and Road Initiative

摘要: 在“一带一路”倡议背景下，中国运输业促进了“一带一路”沿线国家的区域联系，但也造成了二氧化碳的排放。为了实现“一带一路”沿线国家的绿色发展，探究中国运输业在“一带一路”沿线国家的碳排放情况至关重要。基于IO-SDA模型，对碳排放以及其驱动因素进行了测算与特征分析。实证结果表明，中国运输业是“一带一路”沿线国家的碳净出口国家，直接碳排放强度效应对中国运输业在“一带一路”沿线国家的进出口碳排放具有持续且显著的抑制作用；贸易规模效应对进出口碳排放起到持续且显著的促进作用；贸易结构效应随着时间推移，对进出口运输碳排放的促进作用逐渐提高，而投入产出结构效应对进出口运输碳排放的促进作用有逐渐减弱的趋势。最后针对中国运输业在“一带一路”沿线国家的碳排放状况提出建议，以促进中国运输业的绿色发展。

Abstract: China’s transport industry promotes regional links under the Belt and Road Initiative, but it also contributes to carbon dioxide emissions. In order to realize the green development of the “Belt and Road”, it is crucial to explore the carbon emissions of China’s transport industry in the “Belt and Road”. Based on IO-SDA model, carbon emission and its driving factors are measured and analyzed. The empirical results show that China’s transport industry is a net carbon exporter of the “Belt and Road”, and the direct carbon emission intensity effect has a sustained and significant inhibition effect on the carbon emissions of China’s transport industry in the “Belt and Road”. The scale effect of trade plays a continuous and significant role in promoting import and export carbon emissions. With the passage of time, the promoting effect of trade structure effect on import and export transport carbon emissions is gradually increased, while the promoting effect of input-output structure effect on import and export transport carbon emissions is gradually weakened. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for the carbon emission status of China's transport industry in the “Belt and Road”, so as to promote the green development of China's transport industry.