虚拟集聚对我国省域出口韧性的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Virtual Agglomeration on Regional Export Resilience

摘要: 出口韧性是衡量区域应对外部冲击能力和推动高质量发展的关键指标，而虚拟集聚作为一种创新经济模式，通过竞争、创新和知识溢出的协同效应，对出口韧性产生了深远影响。本文基于2009至2022年间我国30个省级行政单位的综合面板数据，构建了调节效应分析框架，实证研究了虚拟集聚对区域出口韧性的影响机制。研究结果表明，虚拟集聚显著提升了区域出口韧性，但其效果受到创新水平的调节，创新水平提升可能削弱这一正向效应。这一现象主要归因于虚拟集聚内部的协同机制不足。本文的研究不仅为虚拟集聚与出口韧性关系提供了新的理解框架，还为政策制定者优化创新资源配置提供了实证依据。

Abstract: Export resilience is a key indicator to measure a region’s ability to cope with external shocks and promote high-quality development, and virtual agglomeration, as an innovative economic model, has a profound impact on export resilience through the synergistic effect of competition, innovation and knowledge spillover. Based on the comprehensive panel data of 30 provincial administrative units in China from 2009 to 2022, this paper constructs a regulatory effect analysis framework and empirically studies the influence mechanism of virtual agglomeration on regional export resilience. The results show that virtual agglomeration significantly improves regional export resilience, but its effect is regulated by the level of innovation, and the improvement of innovation level may weaken this positive effect. This phenomenon is mainly attributed to the lack of coordination mechanism within virtual agglomeration. This study not only provides a new framework for understanding the relationship between virtual agglomeration and export resilience, but also provides an empirical basis for policy makers to optimize the allocation of innovation resources.