我国各地区GDP影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Influencing Factors of GDP in Various Regions of China

摘要: 随着国家经济的飞速发展，GDP作为衡量经济总量的关键指标，其增长受到多种复杂因素的共同影响。为了深入理解我国经济发展的动力与瓶颈，本研究探究影响我国GDP增长的多重因素，包括地区出生率、城镇失业人口、人均可支配收入、国内专利申请量、税收收入及货物出口额等，通过2013~2019年我国31个省份及地区的面板数据，运用Stata建立多元线性回归模型分析其对GDP的影响，并提出以下建议以促进经济持续健康发展：1) 优化生育政策与公共服务以提升生育意愿；2) 优化产业结构，鼓励创新创业以增加就业岗位；3) 提高居民收入与优化消费环境；4) 优化产品结构与营商环境，推动出口额增长。

Abstract: With the rapid development of the country’s economy, GDP is a key indicator to measure the total economic volume, and its growth is affected by a variety of complex factors. In order to deeply understand the driving force and bottleneck of China’s economic development, this study explores the multiple factors affecting China’s GDP growth, including regional birth rate, urban unemployed population, per capita disposable income, domestic patent applications, tax revenue and export of goods, etc., through the panel data of 31 provinces and regions in China from 2013 to 2019, and uses Stata to establish multiple linear regression model to analyze its impact on GDP. The following suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the economy: 1) Optimize fertility policies and public services to enhance fertility intentions; 2) Optimize the industrial structure and encourage innovation and entrepreneurship to increase jobs; 3) Increase residents’ income and optimize the consumption environment; 4) Optimize the product structure and business environment to promote the growth of exports.