城市收缩对城市经济发展的影响研究——兼论数字经济的调节作用

Research on the Impact of Urban Shrinkage on Urban Economy Development—On the Regulatory Role of Digital Economy

摘要: 城市收缩是经济发展中不可忽视的问题。人口是一切经济社会活动的基础，也是经济增长中重要的劳动力要素。依据2011年与2020年的城市收缩度的数据，利用ArcGIS软件绘制城市收缩图，对比发现2020年全国城市收缩问题加重，尤其是中西部地区与长江经济带地区。在分析城市收缩作用城市经济的机理基础上，将2011年~2020年中国271个地级市作为研究对象，实证验证城市收缩对城市经济发展的影响效果。研究发现：城市收缩显著降低了城市经济发展水平；进一步用工具变量法处理内生性问题以及一系列稳健性检验，这一结论依然成立；城市收缩可能通过对经济聚集和产业聚集产生负面影响等渠道影响城市经济发展；数字经济削弱了城市收缩对城市经济发展的负向影响关系；异质性分析结果表明，城市收缩对东北、北部沿海、黄河中游、长江中游以及大西北地区的经济负面影响更显著。这丰富了城市收缩的研究范畴，也研究为城市收缩抑制城市经济发展提供一定理论和经验依据。

Abstract: Urban shrinkage is an issue that cannot be ignored in economic development. Population is the foundation of economic and social activities and an important labor force factor in economic growth. Based on the data of urban shrinkage in 2011 and 2020, using ArcGIS software to draw urban shrinkage maps, it was found that the problem of urban shrinkage in China intensified in 2020, especially in the central and western regions and the Yangtze River Economic Belt. On the basis of analyzing the mechanism of urban contraction on urban economy, 271 prefecture level cities in China from 2011 to 2020 were selected as research objects to empirically verify the impact of urban contraction on urban economy. Research has found that urban contraction significantly reduces the level of urban economic development. With the further use of the instrumental variable method to address endogeneity issues and a series of robustness tests, this conclusion still holds. Urban contraction may affect urban economic development through channels such as negative impacts on economic and industrial agglomeration. The digital economy has weakened the negative impact of urban contraction on urban economic development. The results of heterogeneity analysis indicate that urban shrinkage has a more significant negative impact on the economy of the northeast, northern coastal areas, the middle reaches of the Yellow River, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and the northwest region. This enriches the research scope of urban shrinkage and provides a certain theoretical and empirical basis for the suppression of urban economic development by urban shrinkage.