数字普惠金融如何影响农村家庭债务杠杆率？

How Does Digital Financial Inclusion Affect Rural Household Debt Leverage Ratio?

摘要: 近年来数字普惠金融快速发展，在给家庭带来“数字红利”的同时，也可能会增加家庭的负债杠杆，增加债务风险。基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据和北京大学数字普惠金融指数，实证分析数字普惠金融发展对农村家庭债务杠杆率的影响及其作用机制。结果表明：数字普惠金融发展会通过缓解信贷约束、促进过度消费和降低不确定性推动农村家庭债务杠杆率的升高。进一步分析发现，数字普惠金融对农村家庭债务杠杆率的影响存在异质性，对金融素养和数字素养水平较低以及依赖非正规借贷的群体的影响更明显，而提升家庭资产配置效率则会发挥一定的缓释作用。以上结论对防范农村家庭债务风险以及推动数字普惠金融高质量发展具有重要启示。

Abstract: The rapid development of digital inclusive finance in recent years, while bringing “digital dividends” to households, may also increase the debt leverage of households and increase debt risks. Based on the data of China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and Peking University Digital Financial Inclusion Index, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of digital financial inclusion on rural household debt leverage ratio and its mechanism. The results show that the development of digital inclusive finance will promote the increase of rural household debt leverage ratio by easing credit constraints, promoting excessive consumption and reducing uncertainty. Further analysis shows that the impact of digital inclusive finance on rural household debt leverage ratio is heterogeneous, and the impact on the groups with low financial literacy and digital literacy and those who rely on informal lending is more obvious, while improving the efficiency of household asset allocation will play a moderating role. The above conclusions have important implications for preventing rural household debt risks and promoting the high-quality development of digital inclusive finance.