1971~2020年塔里木盆地四季开始日期及长度变化特征

Variation Characteristics of the Beginning Dates and Length of Four-Season in Tarim Basin from 1971 to 2020

摘要: 利用塔里木盆地15个气象站1971~2020年逐日气温数据，分析塔里木盆地四季开始日期及长度的变化特征，为当地农业生产提供科学依据。结果表明，春、夏季开始日期均呈提前趋势，倾向率分别为−1.617 d/10 a、−1.562 d/10 a，其中春季开始日期提前趋势显著，通过了α = 0.05的显著性水平检验；秋、冬季开始日期均呈不显著推迟趋势，倾向率分别为1.067 d/10 a、0.757 d/10 a。春、夏季长度均呈增加趋势，倾向率分别为0.117 d/10 a、2.629 d/10 a，其中夏季通过了α = 0.05的显著性水平检验，增加趋势显著；秋、冬季长度均呈减少趋势，倾向率分别为−0.31 d/10 a、−2.745 d/10 a，其中冬季通过了α = 0.01的显著性水平检验。1999年是夏季长度由减少到增加的突变年；冬季长度在1996年发生由增加到减少的突变。

Abstract: Based on daily temperature data of 15 meteorological stations in Tarim Basin from 1971 to 2020, it analysed the characteristics of changes in the beginning date and length of the four seasons in Tarim Basin to provide a scientific basis for local agricultural production. The results showed that the beginning dates of spring and summer showed a trend of advancement, with the propensity rate of −1.617 d/10 a and −1.562 d/10 a, respectively; The spring beginning date advancement trend was significant and passed the test of significance level of а = 0.05; the autumn and winter beginning dates showed a trend of non-significant shift, with the propensity rate of 1.067 d/10 a and 0.757 d/10 a, respectively. The length of spring and summer showed an increasing trend, with propensity rates of 0.117 d/10 a and 2.629 d/10 a, respectively, of which summer passed the significance level test of а = 0.05, with a significant increasing trend; The length of autumn and winter showed a decreasing trend, with propensity rates of −0.31 d/10 a and −2.745 d/10 a, respectively, of which winter passed the significance level test of а = 0.01. In 1999, the summer length mutation was from decrease to increase; The winter length mutation was from increase to decrease in 1996.