中国天然气价格改革的关键因素及策略发展路径研究

Research on the Key Factors and Strategic Development Path of LNG Price Reform in China

摘要: 我国天然气(Liquefied natural gas, LNG)价格存在不能及时反映市场信息、与进口LNG的价格倒挂、交叉补贴等问题，因此本文首先整理这三个问题的10项影响因素，再利用灰关联分析从这些影响因素中萃取重要关键因素，接着再利用TRIZ分析建立改善策略，并使用解释结构模型法建置系统化LNG价格改善策略发展路径。根据分析结果，本文根据灰关联分析找出5项关键因素，并使用TRIZ建立12项改善策略，可归纳为三类，分别为：供给技术策略、预警机制策略、以及成本改善策略，同时拟定短、中、长期三阶段策略发展先后顺序，为LNG价格改善规划提供决策支撑。

Abstract: In China, the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has problems, such as the inability to reflect market information promptly, price inversion with imported LNG, and cross-subsidization. Therefore, this paper first identifies the ten factors influencing these three problems. Then, the grey relational analysis is used to extract key factors from these influencing factors. Next, TRIZ analysis is used to establish improvement strategies, and the interpretive structural modeling is used to establish the systematic development path of the LNG price improvement strategy. According to the analysis results, this paper finds out five key factors based on grey relational analysis, and then 12 improvement strategies are established by TRIZ, which can be summarized into three categories: supply technology strategy, early warning mechanism strategy, and cost improvement strategy. Meanwhile, the development sequence of short-term, medium-term, and long-term strategies is formulated to provide decision-making support for LNG price improvement planning.