平价汇率、名义汇率与中美贸易利益损溢

PPP, Nominal Exchange Rate and Sino-US Trade Interests Loss or Overflow

摘要: 基于价值公平交换的视角，通过对比平价汇率与名义汇率水平上中美双边贸易的进口成本与出口收益，粗略评估中美双方各自的贸易利益损溢，结果发现我国进出口(出口，进口)贸易利损占GDP比重近50年来年均达到−3.81% (−3.17%、−0.64%)，入世以来年均达到−6.08% (−5.26%、−0.82%)；美国进出口(进口，出口)贸易利溢占其GDP比重近50年来年均达到1.2% (0.87%、0.33%)，我国入世以后年均达到2.41% (1.8%、0.61%)。因货币价格低估，我国隐性贸易利损极大，未来有必要巧妙引导人民币汇率向平价汇率收敛。

Abstract: Based on the perspective of fair exchange of values, by comparing the import costs and export benefits of bilateral trade between China and the United States at the parity exchange rate and nominal exchange rate levels, a rough assessment of the trade interests of both sides was provided. The results show that the proportion of China’s import and export (export, import) trade losses to GDP has reached an average of −3.81% (−3.17%, −0.64%) annually in the past 50 years, and has reached an average of −6.08% (−5.26%, −0.82%) annually since China’s accession to the WTO; The import and export (import, export) trade profits of the United States have accounted for an average of 1.2% (0.87%, 0.33%) of its GDP in the past 50 years, after China’s accession to the WTO has reached 2.41% (1.8%, 0.61%). Due to the undervaluation of currency prices, China has suffered significant implicit trade losses. It is necessary to cleverly guide the RMB exchange rate to converge towards parity in the future.