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安和平. 中国人口预测的自回归分布滞后模型研究[J]. 统计与决策, 2005, 21(16): 4-7.

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  • 标题: 我国老龄化人口的影响因素分析Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Aging Population in China

    作者: 李恩来

    关键字: 人口老龄化, 定量分析, 多元回归分析, 建议Aging Population, Quantitative Analysis, Multiple Regression Analysis, Suggestion

    期刊名称: 《Aging Research》, Vol.3 No.2, 2016-08-24

    摘要: 随着人类文明不断地进步,人类的医疗水平和生活质量也不断地提高,导致人类的平均寿命不断增长以及其他各方面原因,使得人类老龄化问题越来越严重,尤其是我国老龄化问题。有不少学者提出人口出生率、死亡率、自然增长率这三个因素是影响人口老龄化的主要因素,本文基于这三个主要因素基础,添加一些其他因素来构建一个多元回归分析来定量分析我国老龄化人口数与哪些因素有关。本文一方面定量分析我国老龄化人口的变化趋势与我国人口出生率和我国人均GDP之间的关系,另一方面也论证了我国今年年初实行的放开“二胎”政策的必要性和合理性。本文最后给出一些合理的建议来应对我国老龄化问题。 With the continuous progress of human civilization, human health and quality of life continue to improve, so that the average human life expectancy is growing, which makes the human aging problem is becoming more and more serious, especially the aging problem in China. Many scho-lars put forward that the birth rate, death rate and natural growth rate are the main factors in-fluencing aging. Based on the three main factors, this paper adds some other factors to build a multiple regression analysis to make a quantitative analysis of the reasons of aging population. In this paper, on the one hand the quantitative analysis of the relationship between the aging population trend, birth rates and per capita GDP is conducted. On the other hand, it also demonstrates the necessity and rationality of the “two-child” policy released earlier this year. Finally, we give some reasonable suggestions to deal with the problem of aging.