标题:
丹江口水库夏秋汛洪水相关性规律研究Correlation Analysis of Summer and Autumn Floods for Danjiangkou Reservoir
作者:
胡瑶, 郭生练, 刘章君, 洪兴骏
关键字:
汛期洪水, 相关性分析, 联合分布, Copula函数, 条件概率Seasonal Flood, Correlation Analysis, Joint Distribution, Copula Functions, Conditional Probability
期刊名称:
《Journal of Water Resources Research》, Vol.3 No.2, 2014-04-09
摘要:
研究丹江口水库夏汛期洪水和秋汛期洪水的相关性规律，可以为丹江口水库秋汛期防洪和提前蓄水提供科学依据，有利于充分发挥水库的防洪、供水与发电等综合利用效益。利用优选的Copula函数建立丹江口水库的夏秋汛洪峰和最大7日洪量的联合分布，并进行条件概率分析，得出当夏汛期洪峰和最大7日洪量发生不同等级的洪水时，秋汛期的条件概率和洪水等级的分布。分析结果表明：丹江口水库夏秋汛洪水的实测资料具有一定的相关性规律。当夏汛期最大7日洪量发生小洪水时，秋汛期最大7日洪量发生小于二十年一遇的洪水概率为95.3%，发生小于五十年一遇的洪水概率为98.1%。
Correlation rules of summer and autumn floods can provide a scientific basis for the autumn flood prevention and impoundment of Danjiangkou Reservoir, and are conducive for the reservoir’s flood control, water supply, power generation and other utilization efficiency. The optimized Copula function was used to establish the joint distribution of summer and autumn flood peaks and maximum 7-day flood volume respectively for Danjiangkou reservoir. The distributions of conditional probability during autumn flood season were derived and analyzed when the flood peak and maximum 7-day flood volume during summer flood season occur with different grades. Analysis results show that there are certain regularities between the summer and autumn floods of Danjiangkou reservoir basin. When small flood flow occurs during the maximum 7-day flood volume in summer flood season, the probability that less than 20-year-frequency flood occurs during the maximum 7-day flood volume in autumn flood season is 95.3%, while the probability that less than 50-year-frequency flood occurs is 98.1%.