标题:
潘口水库汛期水位动态控制研究Dynamic Control of Pankou Reservoir Water Level during Flood Season
作者:
尹家波, 刘松, 胡永光, 董付强, 宋强
关键字:
汛限水位, 预报预泄, 风险分析, 数值解法, 动态控制, 潘口水库Flood Control Level, Forecasting and Pre-Discharge, Risk Analysis, Numerical Solution, Dynamic Control, Pankou Reservoir
期刊名称:
《Journal of Water Resources Research》, Vol.3 No.5, 2014-10-24
摘要:
潘口水库从规划设计到建成发电，防洪任务多次变更。目前设计的汛限水位较低，造成汛期雨洪资源的浪费，导致水库在汛后不能蓄水到正常蓄水位，影响了兴利效益。本文建立了汛期水位动态控制模型，包括汛限水位寻优模块、预报预泄法分析模块和风险分析模块。在汛限水位寻优模块中，通过改进的龙格–库塔(Runge-Kutta)数值解法进行调洪演算，结果表明水库主汛期的汛限水位可以由原来的347.6 m提高至350.9 m。采用预报预泄法分析模块和风险分析模块，考虑6 h洪水预报信息，计算求得潘口水库的汛限水位动态控制约束域为350.9 m~351.5 m。实现潘口水库汛期水位动态控制，可以显著地提高综合利用效益。The determination of dynamic control domain of reservoir water level during flood season is one of the important issues for both reservoir operation and water conservancy. The flood control task and operation rule of Pankou reservoir has been changed several times, which leads to low flood control water level and waste water resources during flood season. According to current reservoir operation rules, the flood control water level is derived by the Runge-Kutta numerical solution method. It is shown that the flood control water level during main flood season can be increased from 347.6 m to 350.9 m without reducing flood prevention standards. Based on 6 h flow fore-casting information and pre-discharge operation, the interval of dynamic control water level is es-timated and ranges from 350.9 m - 351.5 m subjected to the constraints without increasing flood control risks. The dynamic control of water level during flood season can significantly increase comprehensive benefits of the Pankou reservoir.