广东省收缩型地市的空间识别与建设用地扩张特征研究

Research on Spatial Identification of Contracting Cities and Characteristics of Construction Land Expansion in Guangdong Province

摘要: 中国的城镇化进入新征程背景下，多个城市的发展状态转变为收缩型城市，广东省呈现出典型的“核心增长–边缘收缩”空间格局。本研究基于2010~2020年常住人口数据、NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光数据及土地覆盖遥感数据，构建了“人口–灯光”双维收缩城市识别框架，系统识别广东省收缩型地市的空间分布、类型特征及其建设用地扩张的脱钩模式。结果表明：(1) 在2010~2020年内共有6个地级市呈现人口负增长趋势，空间上高度集中于粤东地区及粤西局部地区，形成环珠三角收缩带；(2) 所有收缩型地市均属于增长型收缩，即人口的流失与经济活动总量扩张并存，没有地市出现人口与夜间灯光同步下降的绝对收缩类型；(3) 收缩型地市普遍存在显著的“人地分离”现象，人口收缩与建设用地的扩张并存，年扩张速率与人口正增长地区基本持平，呈现“绝对脱钩型扩张”特征；(4) 收缩型地市的扩张强度显著低于非收缩型地市，新增用地在空间上更为分散，与存量建成区关联度较低。研究表明，人口–灯光双维识别方式能有效克服单一人口指标局限，揭示城市的隐形收缩。面向收缩型地市，国土空间规划应从无序扩张转向精准管控，并对不同的收缩类型实施分类管理政策，推动发展模式由“以地谋发展”向“人地协调”的精细化管理。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of China’s urbanization entering a new phase, many cities have shifted toward contraction. Guangdong Province exhibits a typical “core growth - periphery contraction” spatial pattern. Using permanent population data (2010~2020), NPP-VIIRS nighttime light data, and land cover remote sensing data, this study develops a dual-dimensional identification framework based on population and nighttime light metrics. It systematically identifies the spatial distribution, typological characteristics, and decoupling patterns of construction land expansion in shrinking prefecture-level cities of Guangdong. The results show that: (1) Six prefecture-level cities experienced population decline during 2010~2020, concentrated in eastern and parts of western Guangdong, forming a “contraction belt” around the Pearl River Delta. (2) All shrinking cities exhibit “growth-type contraction”, where population loss coexists with expanding economic activity; no city shows absolute contraction with declines in both population and nighttime light intensity. (3) These cities display significant “population-land decoupling”, where construction land continues to expand at rates comparable to growing regions despite population loss, indicating “absolute decoupled expansion”. (4) The expansion intensity in shrinking cities is significantly lower than in non-shrinking cities, with new land use being more spatially dispersed and less connected to existing built-up areas. The dual-dimensional framework effectively overcomes the limitations of single demographic indicators and captures hidden urban shrinkage. For shrinking cities, territorial spatial planning should shift from uncoordinated expansion to targeted regulation, adopting categorized policies to transition from land-driven development toward refined human-land coordinated governance.