“深中通道”效应下中山市住宅价格时空分异及驱动机制研究

Research on the Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Driving Mechanism of Residential Prices in Zhongshan City under the “Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge Link”

摘要: 重大交通基础设施建设对区域房地产市场的影响是城市地理学与土地经济学研究的重要议题。本文以“深中通道”建设为研究背景，基于中山市2015~2025年住宅成交数据，构建覆盖“规划预期–建设启动–建设强化–通车–通车后稳定期”五个阶段的研究框架，综合运用GIS空间分析、距离缓冲区分析、核密度估计等方法，系统揭示“深中通道”效应下中山市住宅价格的时空分异特征及其演变规律。研究结果表明：① 样本期内，中山市住宅价格经历了“快速上涨–高位波动–逐步回调”的演变过程，临深区域房价在建设预期阶段率先上涨，呈现明显的“预期驱动”特征；② 住宅价格呈现显著的空间距离衰减规律，0~3 km范围内溢价效应最为突出，建设强化阶段显著溢价区集中于0~9 km范围，通道效应的影响半径约为15 km；③ 2021~2025年间，临深区域(0~6 km)相对于远郊区域(15 km以上)的溢价率由22.6%逐步下降至9.5%，通道溢价效应呈现逐步收窄趋势，市场对通道预期的资本化效应正在减弱；④ 通车后临深区域房价溢价幅度较建设期有所回落，但通道周边区域仍保持一定价格优势，空间格局趋于稳定。上述发现揭示了重大交通基础设施对城市内部空间价值的再分配效应，为中山市国土空间规划、住房供给调控及区域协同发展提供了科学依据。

Abstract: The impact of major transportation infrastructure construction on regional real estate markets is a significant research topic in urban geography and land economics. Taking the “Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge Link” as the research background, this study constructs a research framework covering five stages—“planning expectations, construction initiation, construction intensification, opening, and post-opening stabilization”—based on Zhongshan City’s residential transaction data from 2015 to 2025. By comprehensively applying GIS spatial analysis, distance buffer analysis, and kernel density estimation, the study systematically reveals the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and evolution patterns of Zhongshan City’s residential prices under the “Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge Link” effect. The findings indicate: ① During the sample period, Zhongshan City’s residential prices underwent an evolution process of “rapid rise - high-level fluctuation - gradual adjustment”. Housing prices in the deep Shenzhen proximity area surged first during the construction expectation phase, exhibiting a distinct “expectation-driven” characteristic. ② Residential prices demonstrate a significant spatial distance decay pattern, with the premium effect most pronounced within the 0~3 km range. During the construction intensification phase, the significant premium zone concentrates within the 0~9 km range, and the influence radius of the link effect is approximately 15 km. ③ From 2021 to 2025, the premium rate of the deep Shenzhen proximity area (0~6 km) relative to the remote suburban area (beyond 15 km) gradually declined from 22.6% to 9.5%. The premium effect of the link exhibits a narrowing trend, and the capitalization effect of market expectations regarding the link is diminishing. ④ Post-opening, the housing price premium in the deep Shenzhen proximity area decreased compared to the construction period, but the surrounding link area still maintains a certain price advantage, with spatial patterns stabilizing. These findings reveal the redistributive effect of major transportation infrastructure on urban internal spatial value, providing a scientific basis for Zhongshan City’s territorial spatial planning, housing supply regulation, and regional coordinated development.