探究惠州市中心城区房价与地价的关系

Exploring the Relationship between House Prices and Land Prices in Huizhou City Center

摘要: 城市房价与地价之间的关系错综复杂，不仅受多种因素的交织影响，相互之间也存在动态关系。研究房价与地价关系的传统，如Granger因果检验和回归分析等，无法刻画房价与地价之间多维网络状关系，相比之下，结构方程模型能同时处理多个内生潜变量，且不受观测指标共线性的影响，为刻画地价与房价的交互作用提供新的工具。从住房与土地市场的供需传导机制出发，推导出房价与地价的结构模型，以惠州市中心城区——惠城区和惠阳区为例，通过2017~2019年居住用地价格和2020年在售和待售楼盘价格，再提取房天下网页中的公共交通可达性，商服繁华度和设施便利度等解释变量，构建地价与房价结构方程模型，分析二者之间的结构关系。

Abstract: The relationship between urban housing prices and land prices is complex, not only affected by the interweaving of many factors, but also dynamic relationships between them. The tradition of studying the relationship between house prices and land prices, such as Granger causality test and regression analysis, cannot describe the multi-dimensional network relationship between house prices and land prices. In contrast, the structural equation model can handle multiple endogenous latent variables at the same time and is not affected by it. Observing the impact of the collinearity of the indicators provides a new tool for describing the interaction between land prices and housing prices. Starting from the supply and demand transmission mechanism of the housing and land markets, the structure model of house prices and land prices is derived. Taking Huizhou’s central urban areas—Huicheng and Huiyang Districts as examples, the prices of residential land in 2017~2019 and those on sale and for sale in 2020 real estate prices, and then extract explanatory variables from the Fangtianxia webpage, such as public transportation accessibility, prosperous business services and facility convenience, construct a structural equation model of land prices and housing prices, and analyze the structural relationship between the two.